Wage-weighted lottery estimate

🎯 H1B Lottery Odds Calculator

Enter your offer details to estimate your odds. We use public H1B filing history + wage levels (I–IV) to model weighted lottery entries.

We estimate your probability of being selected (USCIS "selections"), not a guarantee of final approval.

Your inputs

Best results when you select a job + location (more accurate wage level estimate).

Annual salary (USD)

Wage level is inferred after you run the estimate (no extra API call).

I have a U.S. Master’s (or higher) degree (masters cap eligibility)

We model the advanced-degree exemption as a second selection round (in addition to the regular round).

Estimated total registrations (optional)

This is a key assumption. Higher registrations → lower odds. Leave blank to use the default.

Expected USCIS selections (optional)

Key driver

USCIS often selects more than 78,200 registrations (58,200 regular + 20,000 masters) to account for non-filing/denials. This input controls that “oversampling”.

Assumed % of registrants with U.S. Master’s (advanced degree pool)

Used only when “Master’s cap eligibility” is checked. We clamp this between 5% and 85% to avoid unrealistic values.

Company (optional)

Job title (required)

Location (required)

Results

Estimated odds based on weighted entries + expected USCIS selections (what you ultimately hear as your result).

Fill in salary + job + location, then click “Estimate my odds”.

Assumptions & math

The "selection probability" is driven mainly by expected selections + total weighted entries.

How we calculate probability

1) Total weighted entries

totalWeighted = Σ(registrations_level × weight_level)

2) Per-entry selection chance

pEntry ≈ expectedSelections / totalWeighted

3) Multiple entries (Level IV has 4)

pSelected = 1 − (1 − pEntry)^(entries)

Master's (two chances)

pTotal = pRegular + (1 − pRegular) × pMastersRound

Default assumptions

Expected registrations: default 450,000 (you can override).
Expected selections: defaults by year (often > 78,200) to reflect USCIS oversampling.
Master's share: default 35% (used only if you're master's eligible).
Wage weights: I=1, II=2, III=3, IV=4.
Data source: wage-level distribution is inferred from public DOL filing history (not live USCIS registrations).

Want the historical registrations vs selections context?